Even in the morning pound he is lazy I slipped together with dollar to the basis of the 28th figure, with permanent attempts to test two-week minima. Parliamentary hearings on inflation couldn’t give support to the British currency, and the becoming stronger dollar pressed for GBP/USD, determining the southern trend. The situation sharply changed in the second half of day today. Fault to everything is a notorious Brexit, and the next rumors around negotiation process are more right. Here it is worth reminding that exactly a week ago the pound suddenly jumped up nearly to the middle of the 30th figure under similar circumstances. However, then the northern impulse of couple was provoked by Michel Barnier who intrigued the market with possible break in negotiations. In other words, the market obtained information first-hand, from the chief negotiator from the EU. Today situation a bit different: the read information has character of the insider whereas there is no official confirmation for the present. Despite such circumstances, pound not only I blocked all losses of the last days, but also I pulled for myself European currency which could return to the 16th figure. The matter is that the published rumors are so optimistical that if receive official confirmation, then completely they will redraw a fundamental picture for couple of GBP/USD and other cross-couples with participation of pound. So, according to one of the American news agencies, Britain and Germany could reach a compromise on key questions, having created favorable circumstances for the conclusion of the final transaction on the Brexit. The American journalists refer to anonymous officials who are directly connected with negotiation process. According to them, the parties mutually abandoned “some claims” (from what – it isn’t specified) then the probability of “a civilized divorce” in many respects increased. Also insider sources were specified that generally concessions were made by Germans though in what questions – it is unknown.
Here It should be noted that Germany has a great influence on the European politicum therefore by and large it is possible to speak about achievement of the agreement in principle between London and Brussels – if, of course, the published information is true. In general similar “calls” about achievement of a compromise appear even more often – and this fact can’t but please. The scenario of a chaotic exit of Britain from the EU looks so apokaliptichno that experts disperse in estimates of possible consequences. But all of them are convinced that not only the British, but also European economy will suffer. Therefore traders very sharply react to optimistical signals of rather divorce proceeding. By the way, in the first half of day the market actually ignored one more signal which was sounded by the deputy of the British parliament Lidington. He said that the transaction between London and Brussels is ready for 85%, and the parties needed only to settle the most difficult question which concerns the status of the Irish border. The pound remained is indifferent to such rhetoric – perhaps because spoke about the 85 percent arrangement last week, and can and therefore that even the remained 1% is capable to break all transaction. And still in the market information that dialogue between Brussels and London is in the home stretch in increasing frequency appears. For example, last week in the British press there was information that the president of France Macron at the September EU summit will make the application in which he will ask the European colleagues to show “the maximum flexibility” in negotiations with London that divorce proceeding came to the end with the conclusion of the transaction. And it is not the complete list of positive signals which appear in an information field recently. Today’s situation shall serve once again as prevention for those who play on depreciation of pound. Any more or less significant hint exerts strong impact on pound on the transaction. And such price splashes appear even more often – today already the second case for the last one and a half weeks. And it is only rumors and preliminary comments which are only harbingers of “big deal”. As soon as the parties really are in the home stretch of agreement signature, the British currency will show sure and almost recoilless growth on all market, regardless of other fundamental factors.
From the point of view of GBP/USD steam equipment pulsewise I punched the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator and also the crossed Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines on the day schedule. If today-tomorrow couple is fixed above a mark 1.2905, then the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator will create a signal “A gold cross” which warns about possible change of a trend. In that case the mark 1.3035 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1) will be the following price purpose. I couldn’t punch this level of resistance of steam a week ago, and this week also everything will depend on a further news background. If couple nevertheless breaks this barrier, then the price 1.3130 (the lower bound of a cloud of Kumo) will be the following price reference point. However to speak about it still early: “maximum programme” for GBP/USD is more laconic for today: to come and gain a foothold in the area of the 30th figure.